Research and Analysis Paper

Research and Analysis Paper

On April 28, 2006, the Department of State sent to Congress its annual report on global terrorism: Country Reports on Global Terrorism 2005. The 262-page report provides an annual strategic assessment of trends in terrorism and the evolving nature of the terrorist threat, coupled with detailed information on anti-terror cooperation by nations worldwide. The report and underlying data portray a threat from radical Jihadists that is becoming more widespread, diffuse, and increasingly homegrown, often with a lack of formal operational connection with al Qaeda ideological leaders such as Osama Bin Laden or Ayman al Zawahiri.

Three trends in terrorism are identified in the Department of State report which are independently reflected in the work of analysts elsewhere. First is the emergence of so called “micro actors,” in part spurred by U.S. successes in isolating or killing much of al Qaeda’s leadership. The result is an al Qaeda with a more subdued, although arguably still significant, operational role, but assuming more of an ideological, motivational, and propaganda role. Second is the trend toward “sophistication”; i.e. terrorists exploiting the global flow of information, finance, and ideas to their benefit, often through the internet. Third is an increasing overlap of terrorist activity with international crime, which may expose the terrorists to a broad range of law enforcement countermeasures.

The report notes an overall increase in suicide bombings, especially in Iraq, where terror incidents accounted for almost a third of all terror incidents globally in 2005 and more than half of terror related deaths worldwide. However, some observers suggest that much of what the report characterizes as terrorist incidents in Iraq would be better categorized as insurgent activity and also to some degree as criminal activity. The report suggests that active, direct, state sponsorship of terror is declining, with the notable exceptions of Iran and perhaps to some degree Syria.

Emerging trends that may require enhanced policy focus for the 110th Congress are (1) attacks that aim to cause economic damage such as attacks on transportation infrastructure, tourism, and oil installations, (2) the growing number of unattributed terrorist attacks, and (3) the growing power and influence of radical Islamist political parties in foreign nations. Recent suggestions that al Qaeda remains operationally active are of growing concern as well.

The State Department report suggests an immediate future with a larger number of “smaller attacks, less meticulously planned, and local rather than transnational in scope.” If so, some adjustment in implementation of United States anti-terror strategy and tactics to reflect a more international law enforcement oriented approach, such as that envisioned in the February 2003 National Strategy for Combating Terrorism, may be warranted. As the global economic, political, and technological landscapes evolve, data being collected to identify and track terrorism may need to change.

This report will not be updated.

Contents

Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Purpose and Scope of Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Definition of Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Importance of Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Reported Trends in Terrorism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2006 State Department Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

More Micro-Actors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Increased Sophistication . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Overlap with International Crime . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Increase in Suicide Bombings/Links between U.S. Iraqi Operations

and Global Terror . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Decline in State-Sponsored Terrorism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

2005 NCTC Statistical Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Trends Reported by Other Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Issues for the 110th Congress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Consistency/Compatibility and Significance of Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 A Weakened al Qaeda? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 The Rise in Influence of Radical Islamist Political Parties . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Adequacy of International Anti-terror Cooperation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 What Are the Trends Related to Schools Teaching Radical Jihadism? . . . . 13 Terror Groups Evolving into Criminal Groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Resource Allocation Between Larger and Smaller Attacks . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Responding to Unclaimed/Anonymous Terrorism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Some Implications for U.S. Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

For Additional Reading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Research and Analysis Paper